Techno-economic analysis of non-firm grid connections.

Curtailment impact, what really moves the number.

Why a 20% headline curtailment figure can be fatal, manageable or largely irrelevant depending on what it actually means for revenue and valuation. Move the sliders.

This tool is deliberately simplified and does not model site-specific constraints, dispatch, ANM logic, queue position or reinforcement timing.

Project capacity (MW)

100

Base revenue (£/kW/year, gross)

Headline curtailment % (energy-weighted)

Revenue-weighted multiplier (timing of curtailment vs prices)

0.35x

Realistic queue attrition % (reduces effective curtailment)

Project life (years)

Discount rate

Effective curtailment,

Revenue impact,

Annual revenue lost,

NPV impact,

Per MW NPV impact,

Lifetime impact (undiscounted),

Why this matters: Headline % treats every lost MWh as equally valuable. Revenue actually lost depends on when the curtailment happens, how the asset would have dispatched, and how the queue ahead really evolves. A 20% project can lose anywhere between roughly 2% and 25% of revenue depending on those three factors, and the valuation impact compounds over project life. That is the gap Quantail closes.

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