Scenarios based on Quantail methodology. Client work is anonymised by default.
The problem: A 99 MW BESS being treated as borderline uninvestable on a 20% headline curtailment figure. The sponsor was preparing to walk.
What Quantail analysis would do: Reconstruct the LIFO queue project-by-project. Test attrition. Model BESS dispatch-weighted curtailment. Identify whether the binding constraint is a distribution branch or a transmission Technical Limit.
What it can reveal: Whether the headline number is commercially fatal, manageable, or materially misstated, and what configuration changes (if any) would improve the risk-adjusted outcome.
The problem: A pipeline with widely different curtailment claims and queue positions. Where to spend development capital was a guess.
What Quantail analysis would do: One methodology across all sites, queue reconstruction, constraint exposure, T/D boundary check, attrition sensitivity. A like-for-like ranking.
What it can reveal: Which projects are genuinely capital-worthy, which are structurally constrained beneath the headline, which deserve to drop down the priority list.
The problem: A buy-side investor where the vendor pack carried a curtailment number that looked low for the GSP and queue position.
What Quantail analysis would do: Independent reconstruction from the same public data. Multiple scenarios for queue attrition and reinforcement timing.
What it can reveal: Whether the vendor’s number is still defensible, whether the buyer should adjust valuation, or whether a curtailment-linked price mechanism is the right way to allocate residual risk.
The same published data and methodological approaches apply in other markets. We have experience in mainland Europe and are happy to consider non-GB work on a case-by-case basis.
Scoping calls are free, around 30 minutes, confidential.
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