Techno-economic analysis of non-firm grid connections.

Price the grid risk before it prices the deal for you.

Built from direct experience on the development and sell-side of major BESS transactions. Quantail provides the grid-risk analysis deal teams need but rarely receive in decision-ready form, so investors can test curtailment, queue and non-firm assumptions before capital commits.

Where Quantail helps investors

Across the investment lifecycle.

Independent due diligence

Curtailment, queue and connection assumptions in IM, vendor reports and management presentations, reconstructed from public data plus sponsor materials.

Decision: bid / reprice / require protection / walk.

Valuation sensitivity

How curtailment shape, queue attrition and reinforcement timing move the cashflows that drive entry price. Time-of-curtailment vs price profile, not just energy %.

Decision: refine valuation / set price.

Constraint-aware operational cashflows

Not "20% curtailed" but what the P&L looks like, half-hour by half-hour, against credible constraint and price scenarios.

Decision: model the asset properly.

Comparing assets

One methodology across multiple targets in a process or portfolio. Like-for-like ranking.

Decision: rank / select / drop.

Downside cases

Credible adverse scenarios, explicit assumption registers, confidence levels. The cases IC actually needs.

Decision: approve / decline / condition.

Post-deal monitoring

Where queue movement, ANM updates or reinforcement shifts could change the asset story.

Decision: monitor / re-underwrite / divest.

Deliverables

Outputs investors actually use.

  • Downside case assumptions, with explicit triggers and confidence levels
  • Curtailment / revenue sensitivity (energy-, revenue-, BESS dispatch-weighted)
  • Configuration sensitivity, capacity, duration, overbuild, dispatch shape
  • Queue and attrition commentary, project-by-project
  • IC paper language, ready to drop into risk and assumptions sections
  • Red / amber / green ranking across portfolio
  • Questions for seller, sponsor or technical adviser
  • Risks that should change valuation versus risks that need monitoring

Discuss a deal or a portfolio.

Scoping calls are free, around 30 minutes, confidential.

Book a scoping call