The full picture

Curtailment is not one thing.

It is the output of 10+ interacting systems: physics, control rules, queues, markets, weather, asset behaviour, and policy. This is why getting it right takes more than a spreadsheet and a guess.

Interactive systems map

Click any node to explore the system.

Each coloured node represents a system that drives curtailment. Click to see what it includes and how it connects to other systems. The lines show where systems interact, creating the compound complexity that makes curtailment so hard to predict.

CURTAILMENT
MW, MWh, shape
over time
Network Physics & Limits
Topology, Outages & Operability
ANM Control Rules
Connections, Queue & Pipeline
T/D Boundary & Transmission
Weather, Output & Demand
Asset Behaviour & Technology
Markets, Compensation & Rules
Queue Reform & Policy
Curtailment ≠ Revenue Impact
The bottom line

This is why a single curtailment number is almost always wrong.

Every node in the diagram above interacts with at least three others. Change one input and the ripple effects cascade through the system. A planned outage changes the topology, which shifts the constraint direction, which alters the ANM control response, which changes curtailment volumes for every project in the queue differently.

Static spreadsheet models can't capture this. Generic market data platforms don't model it at site level. And AI-powered tools that layer general models onto energy data miss the domain physics entirely.

This is why Quantail exists. We build purpose-specific simulation models that account for the compound interactions between these systems, then translate the output into the financial metrics your investment committee needs.

What changes the answer?

Queue attritionHigh
Reinforcement timingHigh
Dispatch strategyMedium
Gate 2 reformMedium
Weather yearMedium
Topology changesLower

Stop guessing at grid risk. Start pricing it.

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